Session 4: New industrial developments and the evolving architecture of international trade
Chair: Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
Paper: “Recent evolutions in the global trade system: from integration to strategic realignment”
Author: Ana Maria Santacreu, Economic Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
(together with Florencia Airaudo, Economist, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, François de Soyres, Section Chief, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and Alexandre Gaillard, Assistant Professor, Brown University)
Discussant: Diego Comin, Professor, Dartmouth College
Session 1: Macroeconomic implications of changes in euro area labour markets
Chair: Luis de Guindos, Vice-President, European Central Bank
Paper: “Eurosclerosis at 40: labor market institutions, dynamism, and European competitiveness”
Author: Benjamin Schoefer, Associate Professor, University of California, Berkeley
Discussant: Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, President, WZB Berlin, and Professor, Goethe University Frankfurt
Panel 1: Cross-country heterogeneity in the euro area and implications for monetary policy
Chair: Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Second Deputy Governor, Banque de France
Piet Haines Christiansen, Director, Danske Bank
Luca Fornaro, Senior Researcher, CREI, and Adjunct Professor, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Refet Gürkaynak, Professor, Bilkent University
Session 2: Monetary transmission through households, consumption and savings
Chair: Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board, European Central Bank
Paper: “Discretionary spending is the cycle, and why it matters for monetary policy”
Author: Paolo Surico, Professor, London Business School
(together with Michele Andreolli, Assistant Professor, Boston College, Natalie Rickard, London Business School, and Chiara Vergeat, London Business School)
Discussant: María Teresa Valderrama, Head of the Monetary Policy Section, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
The ECB Forum on Central Banking – the Sintra Forum – is an annual event organised by the European Central Bank and is held in Sintra, Portugal.
It brings together central bank governors, academics, financial market representatives, journalists and others to exchange views on current policy issues and discuss the Forum’s key topic from a longer-term perspective.
How does geopolitical uncertainty affect inflation? How do we keep monetary policy fit for purpose in a rapidly changing world? And what are the main topics at this year’s ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal?
In the first episode of our special Sintra series for The ECB Podcast, our host Paul Gordon discusses all these questions and more with Chief Economist and Executive Board member, Philip R. Lane.
The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.
Published on 25 June 2025 and recorded on 16 June 2025.
In this episode:
01:28 The ECB Governing Council lowered key interest rates to 2%.
What was the motivation behind the decision?
04:30 How do we ensure that risks and uncertainties are integrated into the monetary policy decision-making process?
What is our baseline? What factors need to be taken into account?
06:44 Alternative scenarios in the latest projections
Why do we communicate our “what if” scenarios?
08:11 Meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach
Why do we follow this approach?
09:50 Strategy review
How can we make sure our strategy is up to date?
12:02 High-level uncertainty
How do we factor heightened uncertainty in our strategy?
13:50 ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal
What is the ECB Forum and what’s behind it? What’s the goal of the Forum? What’s Philip R. Lane looking forward to?
16:53 Our guest’s hot tip
Philip R. Lane shares his hot tip.
Programme of ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conference…_banking.en.html
Ken Rogoff "Our dollar, your problem"
yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300275…r-your-problem/
The ECB Forum on Central Banking – the Sintra Forum – is an annual event organised by the European Central Bank and is held in Sintra, Portugal.
It brings together central bank governors, academics, financial market representatives, journalists and others to exchange views on current policy issues and discuss the Forum’s key topic from a longer-term perspective.
